Friday, October 28, 2005
More people try to spin the Zogby Poll... (something smells funny, this time at the Kurita camp)
It turns out JB is not the only one trying to spin the recent Zogby poll. Kurita's US Senate campaign (yes, it still exists) sent out a fundraising e-mail today referring to the Zogby poll saying this:
“I’m the Democrat with the best chance of winning the General Election. " -- Kurita is quoted saying in the e-mail. The e-mail goes on to state: Against both Van Hilleary and Bob Corker, Kurita performed better than Ford. In fact, against Corker – the candidate who has raised the most money to date – Kurita is in a statistical dead heat.
This is all fine and dandy ...UNLESS YOU CHECK THE POLL... then something starts to smell pretty funny about Kurita's words.
Senator
Bryant (R) 51%
Ford Jr. (D) 40%
Senator
Hilleary (R) 50%
Ford Jr. (D) 41%
Senator
Corker (R) 45%
Ford Jr. (D) 40%
Senator
Bryant (R) 51%
Kurita (D) 34%
Senator
Hilleary (R) 47%
Kurita (D) 39%
Senator
Corker (R) 40%
Kurita (D) 38%
Now, if you actually look at the numbers, you'll see Kurita's number are 34-39-38 on the Republican match-ups where Ford's are 40-41-45. Wow, Kurita sure is strong, huh? I mean, she barely squeaks into the margin of error (less than one point) in one instance and is dead in the water in every other instance.
But it gets better, the poll memo itself even says Kurita is kapootz (is that really a word?):
On the Democratic side, Harold Ford Jr., the telegenic African American congressman
who represents Memphis and is one of the more moderate-to-conservative Democrats in
the U.S. House, is his party’s best hope. [Referring to the GOP advantage] ... Democratic State
Senator Rosalind Kurita performs even worse.
Maybe Kurita should start proofreading these things before she sends them out...? Maybe her potential donors are smarter than she thinks and check the facts. That could explain her poor fundraising...? Hey Daniel, I offered you a way to spin the bad fundraising! No charge for the help of course.
All this poll shows is that Bob Corker and Kurita are out and despite Bryant's falling numbers, he is competitive with Van.
“I’m the Democrat with the best chance of winning the General Election. " -- Kurita is quoted saying in the e-mail. The e-mail goes on to state: Against both Van Hilleary and Bob Corker, Kurita performed better than Ford. In fact, against Corker – the candidate who has raised the most money to date – Kurita is in a statistical dead heat.
This is all fine and dandy ...UNLESS YOU CHECK THE POLL... then something starts to smell pretty funny about Kurita's words.
Senator
Bryant (R) 51%
Ford Jr. (D) 40%
Senator
Hilleary (R) 50%
Ford Jr. (D) 41%
Senator
Corker (R) 45%
Ford Jr. (D) 40%
Senator
Bryant (R) 51%
Kurita (D) 34%
Senator
Hilleary (R) 47%
Kurita (D) 39%
Senator
Corker (R) 40%
Kurita (D) 38%
Now, if you actually look at the numbers, you'll see Kurita's number are 34-39-38 on the Republican match-ups where Ford's are 40-41-45. Wow, Kurita sure is strong, huh? I mean, she barely squeaks into the margin of error (less than one point) in one instance and is dead in the water in every other instance.
But it gets better, the poll memo itself even says Kurita is kapootz (is that really a word?):
On the Democratic side, Harold Ford Jr., the telegenic African American congressman
who represents Memphis and is one of the more moderate-to-conservative Democrats in
the U.S. House, is his party’s best hope. [Referring to the GOP advantage] ... Democratic State
Senator Rosalind Kurita performs even worse.
Maybe Kurita should start proofreading these things before she sends them out...? Maybe her potential donors are smarter than she thinks and check the facts. That could explain her poor fundraising...? Hey Daniel, I offered you a way to spin the bad fundraising! No charge for the help of course.
All this poll shows is that Bob Corker and Kurita are out and despite Bryant's falling numbers, he is competitive with Van.
# posted by Rusty @ 2:54 PM 
Comments:
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This poll is bogus. It says so at www.vanwagon.blogspot.com. This isn't even a poll of all Tennesseans. Bryant can claim a strong Oregonians for Bryant team and Kurita can claim to have mastered the Massachussetts vote, but thats about all anyone can claim from these resutls. Who cares how Californians and New Yorkers would vote in the Tennessee Senate election, THEY CAN'T VOTE HERE!
This poll is bogus and now it is coming back to embarass the people that are promoting it.
This poll is bogus and now it is coming back to embarass the people that are promoting it.
# posted by 
: 29/10/05
: 29/10/05
It's not a bogus poll. You obviously don't understand the methodology. But feel free to write a letter to the Wall Street Journal to tell them how they are wasting their money. I'm sure the's like to hear from you.
# posted by : 29/10/05
: 29/10/05
Kurita is semi-correct if you look at the spreads. Bryant-Hilleary-Corker beat Ford by 11 - 9 - 5 but beat Kurita by 17 - 8 - 2. So, except for vs. Bryant, Kurita comes out better against the Republicans.
# posted by : 29/10/05
: 29/10/05
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thanks, milo.
you correctly note that in 2 out of 3 possible Republican outcomes, Kurita performs better than Ford.
So, if Democrats want to put their best candidate forward, they should nominate Kurita.
by the way, I call foul, maybe you should actually READ the methodology -- the poll is of TENNESSEANS only -- 745 of them.
Zogby takes steps to ensure the respondents are tennesseans and likely voters.
Is it the most scientific method available? no.
is it a bogus poll? NO.
you correctly note that in 2 out of 3 possible Republican outcomes, Kurita performs better than Ford.
So, if Democrats want to put their best candidate forward, they should nominate Kurita.
by the way, I call foul, maybe you should actually READ the methodology -- the poll is of TENNESSEANS only -- 745 of them.
Zogby takes steps to ensure the respondents are tennesseans and likely voters.
Is it the most scientific method available? no.
is it a bogus poll? NO.
# posted by : 31/10/05
: 31/10/05
So even though she has less voters, she is "stronger" because there are more undecided voters? Wow, that ain't the best of math there kiddos.
Just a reality check Daniel, this is the same guy that made his final '04 election prediction for Kerry. WOW, what a great track record, huh?
Just a reality check Daniel, this is the same guy that made his final '04 election prediction for Kerry. WOW, what a great track record, huh?
here's some analysis, rusty:
Ford polls at 40-41-40 -- an average of just over 40 percent.
Kurita polls 34-38-39 - an average of 37 percent
Ford has spent $1.4 million and done 2 rounds of advertising and only performs an average of 3 points better than Kurita.
I'd say that's a sign his campaign is in trouble.
Ford polls at 40-41-40 -- an average of just over 40 percent.
Kurita polls 34-38-39 - an average of 37 percent
Ford has spent $1.4 million and done 2 rounds of advertising and only performs an average of 3 points better than Kurita.
I'd say that's a sign his campaign is in trouble.
# posted by : 1/11/05
: 1/11/05
I just saw that Ford was crushing Roz 73-14 in primary polling. Why are we even discussing Kurita as a potential general match-up?
She's already fired most of her staff, is running a bare bones campaign, and has missed several events around the state because she cant end staff to them. Seriously now.
FYI Box-Box is not totally nude. Don't be fooled
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She's already fired most of her staff, is running a bare bones campaign, and has missed several events around the state because she cant end staff to them. Seriously now.
FYI Box-Box is not totally nude. Don't be fooled
# posted by : 1/11/05
: 1/11/05 << Home
